System Dynamics Modeling for Managing Capacity and Demand for Human Services

The effective delivery of human services is frequently hampered by complex challenges related to managing both service capacity (e.g., facilities, labor) and fluctuating demand (e.g., community members in need). This persistent mismatch, acutely observed in critical areas such as domestic violence (DV) programs, leads to unmet needs and significant service system strain. While existing approaches address aspects of this problem, they often struggle to capture the dynamic, interconnected nature of these challenges and the underlying system structures that drive observed trends. This paper proposed system dynamics (SD) modeling, a computer-aided methodology for understanding temporal patterns and providing strategic decision support, as a powerful approach to enhance human services management through improved capacity and demand alignment. SD offers a unique ability to shift from an event-oriented perspective to a systems-orientation, revealing endogenous feedback mechanisms and accumulations that conventional methods often overlook. DV programs are presented as a compelling case for this application due to their critical role in supporting persons in crisis and programs’ ongoing struggle with demand exceeding available capacity. By demonstrating the potential of SD in this specific context, the paper highlights a generalizable framework for other human services organizations to better manage complex service delivery challenges.