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Impact of Tariff Policy Measures on Global Markets of Mineral Fertilizers: A Quantitative Assessment

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  • M. S. Zekhov

    (EuroChem Group AG
    National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • N. P. Pil’nik

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics
    Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Research Financial Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation)

  • S. A. Radionov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics
    Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article presents a quantitative assessment of the impact made by tariff policy measures on global markets for phosphorus-containing mineral fertilizers: monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP). The analysis is based on a mathematical model of spatially distributed markets. A scenario analysis of five alternative development options was also conducted including a baseline scenario of continuing current trends, two scenarios of tightening tariff policy, and two scenarios of its liberalization in the United States and Europe. It is shown that a reduction in tariffs on the European market benefits all DAP producers and MAP suppliers, whereas the American scenario favors MAP producers while simultaneously shifting DAP producers to less profitable markets.

Suggested Citation

  • M. S. Zekhov & N. P. Pil’nik & S. A. Radionov, 2025. "Impact of Tariff Policy Measures on Global Markets of Mineral Fertilizers: A Quantitative Assessment," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 623-633, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700725700352
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700725700352
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