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Flipping and ex post aggregation

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  • Matthias Hild
  • Richard Jeffrey
  • Mathias Risse

Abstract

We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Hild & Richard Jeffrey & Mathias Risse, 2003. "Flipping and ex post aggregation," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 20(3), pages 467-475, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:20:y:2003:i:3:p:467-475
    DOI: 10.1007/s003550200193
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Mongin & Marcus Pivato, 2020. "Social preference under twofold uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(3), pages 633-663, October.
    2. Pivato, Marcus, 2022. "Bayesian social aggregation with accumulating evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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