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The Determinants of Tunisian Inclusive Growth: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

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  • Imtinen Ben Saied

    (Sustainable Development, University of Tunis El Manar)

  • Hanen Akrout

    (Higher Institute of Management of Gabes, Gabes University)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between some factors and inclusive growth in Tunisia from 2006 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to assess both short-run and long-run dynamics. Unlike previous research that often emphasizes foreign capital, this analysis focuses on local investment (INV) as a primary engine of economic growth and well being. The model incorporates add-itional variables including trade openness (TR), inflation (INF), foreign direct investment (FDI), electricity production (EP) and natural gas rents (NGR) to provide a comprehensive view of inclusive growth determinants. Using a principal components (PCA), inclusive growth is proxied by two components development (DEV) and well-being (WB). Findings reveal that INV and TR has a statistically significant and positive impact on inclusive growth over the long and short-term. Conversely, INF, FDI, EP and NGR shows a statistically significant and negative effect. Non significant effects concern short-run coefficients of TR and NGR in the case of developpement and only long-run coefficient of EP in the case of well being. Accordingly, policy measures should prioritize investment in infrastructure, industry, and labor-intensive sectors to stimulate productivity and long-term capital accumulation. Inflation should be reduced to minimize inequality and poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Imtinen Ben Saied & Hanen Akrout, 2025. "The Determinants of Tunisian Inclusive Growth: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snopef:v:6:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s43069-025-00540-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s43069-025-00540-y
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