Global ties in science: a scientometric approach to international collaboration dependence

The objective of the study is to evaluate the scientific dependence of science systems through the Scientific Dependence Index (SDI) by analyzing the international collaboration dynamics of Cuba, South Africa, and the United Kingdom (UK), logistic growth models, research productivity trends, and top collaborating countries. These nations represent different research system sizes: a small, restricted system (Cuba), a medium-sized developing system (South Africa), and a large, well-funded system (UK). Descriptive statistics indicate that while Cuba’s scientific output peaked in 2020, it declined in 2024. In contrast, South Africa experienced continuous growth in publications, with a significant rise in collaborations with Nigeria and India, indicating the strengthening of South-South partnerships. The UK remains a global leader in scientific output, though post-2020 trends suggest a slight decline in U.S. collaborations, likely influenced by geopolitical factors such as Brexit. The SDI analysis reveals distinct patterns of international collaboration dependence, with Cuba reaching a high saturation level ( $$K = 0.943$$ K = 0.943 ), South Africa showing steady integration ( $$K = 0.881$$ K = 0.881 ), and the UK maintaining a balanced collaboration strategy ( $$K = 0.827$$ K = 0.827 ). The results underscore the fundamental role of international collaborations in scientific progress, regardless of research system size. Furthermore, the SDI metrics and logistic growth modeling developed provide valuable tools for national research policy planning and strategic decision-making. These findings highlight the need for enhancing domestic research capacity, fostering regional partnerships, and monitoring geopolitical shifts in scientific collaboration to ensure sustainable and competitive national research ecosystems.