Tax Revenues in the Russian Federation: Sectoral and Regional Structural Shifts

In the current geopolitical situation, in connection with the deepening risks and increased threats associated with foreign economic activity, issues regarding sources of tax revenues, their territorial structure, and industry diversification are of particular importance for Russia. In addition to the dynamics of the product, the movement of the volume of receipts into the budget system depends on the parameters of the tax burden. The aim of this study is to assess the evolution and identify the factors of dynamics and changes in the sectoral and territorial structure of tax revenues administered by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. It is shown, in particular, that during the period under review 2010–2022, the growth rate of the Russian Federation’s GRP, even calculated in current prices, consistently decreased up to and including 2020. The movement of tax revenues with the dynamics of the product as a whole was synchronized. The dangerous trend towards a sharp reduction in budget system resources was overcome by a significant increase in the parameters of the tax burden since 2018. The growth of the revenue side of the budget system by 10% is determined by the increase in the tax burden, and by 90% is determined by the dynamics of the GRP. Fundamental structural shifts that actually determine the scale and dynamics of the country’s budget revenues are associated with a relatively narrow group of regions. Approximately a quarter of regions with the highest share of total revenues provide, in total (on average for 2010–2022), about 80% of all revenues from the Federal Tax Service. Trade and a number of subsectors of the manufacturing industry are distinguished, as a rule, by a higher than the national average value of sales profitability and a relatively low tax burden. Apparently, it is worth taking a closer look at these types of activities from the standpoint of increasing the mass of tax revenues in the current and medium term.