Epidemiologic and Economic Analysis of Rapid Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation with Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide in Spain

Objective This study aimed to assess the potential epidemiological and economic impact of rapid initiation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment with bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (B/F/TAF) on HIV transmission compared with the current initiation observed in clinical practice in Spain. Methods A transmission model was adapted to estimate the cumulative HIV infection incidence and potential cost savings based on the number of HIV infections prevented among men who have sex with men, heterosexual males and females, and people who inject drugs (PWID) over a 20-year time horizon. The analysis compared rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation with B/F/TAF (9 days from diagnosis until treatment initiation) versus current ART initiation practice (with an average of 35 days from diagnosis to treatment). People living with HIV were distributed according to their treatment status. Risk for transmission was assigned to undiagnosed, diagnosed in care and not receiving ART, and receiving ART but virally unsuppressed, which was estimated by sexual contact, needles and syringes shared among PWID, state of HIV infection, and ART use. Results In the base-case analysis, rapid ART initiation with B/F/TAF is expected to prevent 992 new HIV infections over the next 20 years compared with current ART initiation practices. Considering the lifetime costs of treating HIV infection, the reduction in HIV incidence could result in potential cost savings of €323 million. Conclusions These results suggest that rapid ART initiation with B/F/TAF in newly diagnosed patients with HIV is a high-value strategy for the Spanish National Health System and society, reducing HIV incidence and thereby reducing future related direct and indirect costs of care.