The Role of Real-World Evidence in UK Reimbursement: Case Study of Lenalidomide in Myelodysplastic Syndrome Deletion 5q

Background Uncertainty within cost-effectiveness analysis, often driven by lack of mature data from large clinical trials, plays a key role in decisions made by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), particularly for early access medicines and orphan drugs. Objectives In this case study, we used real-world evidence to address the uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness case for lenalidomide in transfusion-dependent low- and intermediate-1-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) deletion 5q [del(5q)], affecting a small but unique subpopulation with an orphan disease. Methods As part of a submission to NICE, we developed a cost-effectiveness model for lenalidomide, resulting in eventual recommendation. Results Due to data limitations within the trial evidence available, the model was based on surrogate outcomes supported by a disease-wide literature review. The validity of modelled estimates for critical long-term outcomes in terms of time on treatment (32% reaching 26 cycles when the patient access scheme applied in the model vs. 28% in the real-world data) and survival was confirmed using real-world evidence (projected median survival for best supportive care of 4.3 years vs. real-world evidence showing median survival with low- and intermediate-1-risk MDS of 5.7 and 3.5 years, respectively). Conclusion This case study demonstrates the usefulness and relevance of the application of real-world data when trial data are limited.