Predictors for decision-making in collaborative robots adoption: evidence from the Brazilian manufacturing industry

As collaborative robots increasingly redefine industrial automation, understanding the factors that drive their adoption is essential to operations management. This study examines the main drivers of collaborative robot adoption in the Brazilian manufacturing sector by combining theory-driven framing with a machine learning classification approach. It was developed a Random Forest classifier to identify the strongest predictors of cobot adoption and to rank their relative importance. Data were collected from a sample of respondents—primarily managers and chief executive officers—representing 300 industrial companies. Grounded in the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and complemented by Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) and Institutional (INT) perspectives, the analysis shows that technological advantages, namely space efficiency, cost reduction, and ease of integration, are critical drivers of adoption. Organizational factors, including proactive managerial involvement and alignment with an innovation-oriented culture, significantly increase the likelihood of collaborative robot uptake. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance and produced interpretable variable importance scores that confirm the relative influence of technological and managerial factors. These findings provide a structured lens for understanding and guiding managerial decision-making on cobot adoption and translate into practical recommendations for managers.