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Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Szwagrzyk

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Dominik Kaim

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Bronwyn Price

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Agnieszka Wypych

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Ewa Grabska

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Jacek Kozak

    (Jagiellonian University)

Abstract

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Szwagrzyk & Dominik Kaim & Bronwyn Price & Agnieszka Wypych & Ewa Grabska & Jacek Kozak, 2018. "Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 227-240, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:94:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3384-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3384-y
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdurrahim Aydın & Remzi Eker, 2022. "Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2683-2707, December.
    2. José Edmundo de-Almeida-e-Pais & Hugo D. N. Raposo & José Torres Farinha & Antonio J. Marques Cardoso & Svitlana Lyubchyk & Sergiy Lyubchyk, 2023. "Measuring the Performance of a Strategic Asset Management Plan through a Balanced Scorecard," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Shixiong Yan & Yuannan Long & Huaiguang He & Xiaofeng Wen & Qian Lv & Moruo Zheng, 2023. "Flood response to urban expansion in the Lushui River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 779-805, January.
    4. Yulianto Fajar & Suwarsono & Nugroho Udhi Catur & Khomarudin Muhammad Rokhis & Nugroho Nunung Puji & Sunarmodo Wismu, 2020. "Spatial-Temporal Dynamics Land Use/Land Cover Change and Flood Hazard Mapping in the Upstream Citarum Watershed, West Java, Indonesia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 125-146, March.
    5. Andrzej Gruchot & Tymoteusz Zydroń & Andrzej Wałęga & Jana Pařílková & Jacek Stanisz, 2022. "Influence of Rainfall Events and Surface Inclination on Overland and Subsurface Runoff Formation on Low-Permeable Soil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, April.
    6. Adnan, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani & Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md & Dewan, Ashraf & Hall, Jim W., 2020. "The effects of changing land use and flood hazard on poverty in coastal Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Fang Wei & Lvwang Zhao, 2022. "The Effect of Flood Risk on Residential Land Prices," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Muhammad Aslam Baig & Donghong Xiong & Mahfuzur Rahman & Md. Monirul Islam & Ahmed Elbeltagi & Belayneh Yigez & Dil Kumar Rai & Muhammad Tayab & Ashraf Dewan, 2022. "How do multiple kernel functions in machine learning algorithms improve precision in flood probability mapping?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1543-1562, September.

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