IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v79y2015i3p1889-1911.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of a flash flood event using different precipitation datasets

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail Yucel

Abstract

Remotely sensed precipitation estimates and regional atmospheric model precipitation forecasts provide rainfall data at high spatial and temporal resolutions and can therefore be potentially used for hydrological applications for flash flood forecasting and warning. This study investigates the performance of the rainfall products obtained from weather radar, the Hydro-Estimator (HE) algorithm of NOAA/NESDIS and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and their use in the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrological Modeling System to simulate the catastrophic flood events that occurred in the Ayamama Basin in Istanbul, Turkey during 7–12 September 2009. The precipitation estimates at 4 km were evaluated against gridded precipitation obtained from 34 rain gauges in the study area. The HE, WRF, and radar precipitation showed capabilities in capturing the timing of the flood events and, to some degree, the spatial distribution. They all, however, underestimated the magnitude of the heavy rainfall which caused the flooding. Among these products, the HE showed the best performance, yielding the lowest bias and root mean squared error. Correlations for radar and HE precipitation were close to each other and substantially greater than that of the WRF model. Traces of flood water available for a portion of the Ayamama basin showed that the 9 September flood event is categorized as an event greater than the 500-year return period, with peak discharge of 253.8 m 3 /s. Among the flood hydrographs produced using radar, WRF, HE, and rain gauge precipitation inputs, only the gauge-based precipitation produced a flood peak (264.7 m 3 /s) greater than the 500-year return period on the morning of 9 September 2009. The HE precipitation produced a 100-year flood value (160 m 3 /s), while radar and WRF precipitation both yielded a 25-year flood value (150 m 3 /s) on the flood day. Given the poor drainage capacity of the Ayamama basin, however, this 25-year peak discharge value is also capable of causing flooding in the area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail Yucel, 2015. "Assessment of a flash flood event using different precipitation datasets," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1889-1911, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:3:p:1889-1911
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1938-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1938-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1938-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arzu Ozkaya & Zuhal Akyurek, 2019. "Evaluating the use of bias-corrected radar rainfall data in three flood events in Samsun, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 643-674, September.
    2. Tewodros Assefa Nigussie & Abdusselam Altunkaynak, 2019. "Modeling the effect of urbanization on flood risk in Ayamama Watershed, Istanbul, Turkey, using the MIKE 21 FM model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1031-1047, November.
    3. Changjun Liu & Liang Guo & Lei Ye & Shunfu Zhang & Yanzeng Zhao & Tianyu Song, 2018. "A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 619-634, June.
    4. Jijian Lian & Weichao Yang & Kui Xu & Chao Ma, 2017. "Flash flood vulnerability assessment for small catchments with a material flow approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 699-719, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:3:p:1889-1911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.