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The apparent paradox of exponentially distributed inter-earthquake intervals

Author

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  • F. Nava
  • C. Lomnitz

Abstract

On a global scale, large earthquakes are Poisson-distributed in time which implies that the inter-earthquake intervals are exponentially distributed. Thus, a simple-minded estimation of the most probable interval could conclude that the most probable occurrence time for a large earthquake would be now! This thesis is unsupported by observations. The apparent paradox is explained when characteristics of the interval cumulative distributions are explored for different seismicity rates. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • F. Nava & C. Lomnitz, 2015. "The apparent paradox of exponentially distributed inter-earthquake intervals," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1275-1279, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:2:p:1275-1279
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1548-y
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