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Development of a synthetically generated earthquake catalogue towards assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran

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  • Mohammad Zolfaghari

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology to develop a synthetically simulated earthquake catalogue for northern Iran. The study area covers the northern boundary of Central Iran Plate, which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. A set of areal seismic sources as well as major active faults and their recurrence relationships is modelled to represent the temporal and spatial distribution of potential earthquakes in this region. Probabilistic sampling of events from various spatial and temporal distribution functions, forming sources of uncertainties, is used to generate synthetic events. Areal seismic sources oriented more towards representation of general and background seismicity, derived from statistical and spatial analyses on historical earthquakes. Recurrence relationships as well as potential maximum magnitudes for seismic sources are estimated from records of historical earthquakes and where available from measured and calculated slip rates from recent GPS surveys in this region. The synthetically generated earthquake catalogue provides a realization of potential earthquakes, each characterized with a defined magnitude, location, focal depth, faulting orientation and recurrence frequency. The catalogue is used for assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard, and the results are presented for a test point in the city of Tehran. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Zolfaghari, 2015. "Development of a synthetically generated earthquake catalogue towards assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 497-514, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:1:p:497-514
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1500-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Meisam Mogheisi & Hamidreza Tavakoli & Elnaz Peyghaleh, 2023. "Probability Assessment of the Seismic Risk of Highway Bridges with Various Structural Systems (Case Study: Tehran City)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Archie Rudman & John Douglas & Enrico Tubaldi, 2024. "The assessment of probabilistic seismic risk using ground-motion simulations via a Monte Carlo approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(7), pages 6833-6852, May.

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