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A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy

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  • Lorella Montrasio
  • Roberto Valentino
  • Angela Corina
  • Lauro Rossi
  • Roberto Rudari

Abstract

In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Lorella Montrasio & Roberto Valentino & Angela Corina & Lauro Rossi & Roberto Rudari, 2014. "A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1263-1290, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:1263-1290
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1239-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zonghu Liao & Yang Hong & Dalia Kirschbaum & Robert Adler & Jonathan Gourley & Rick Wooten, 2011. "Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: a case study in Macon County, North Carol," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 325-339, July.
    2. Giuseppe Sorbino & Carlo Sica & Leonardo Cascini, 2010. "Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(2), pages 313-332, May.
    3. Lorella Montrasio & Roberto Valentino & Gian Losi, 2012. "Shallow landslides triggered by rainfalls: modeling of some case histories in the Reggiano Apennine (Emilia Romagna Region, Northern Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1231-1254, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekrem Canli & Bernd Loigge & Thomas Glade, 2018. "Spatially distributed rainfall information and its potential for regional landslide early warning systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 103-127, April.

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