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On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study

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  • Zhijuan Lai
  • Sai Hao
  • Shiqiu Peng
  • Bei Liu
  • Xiangqian Gu
  • Yu-Kun Qian

Abstract

A dynamical downscaling approach based on scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) is applied to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. The results from a case study of super Typhoon Megi (2010) show that the SSDA approach is very effective in improving the TC track forecasts by fitting the large-scale wind field from the regional model to that from the global forecast system (GFS) forecasts while allowing the small-scale circulation to develop freely in the regional model. A comparison to the conventional spectral-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) indicates that the SSDA approach outperforms the FDDA in TC track forecasts because the former allows the small-scale features in a regional model to develop more freely than the latter due to different techniques used. In addition, a number of numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of SSDA’s effect in TC track forecasts to some parameters in SSDA, including the cutoff wave number, the vertical layers of the atmosphere being adjusted, and the interval of SSDA implementation. The results show that the improvements are sensitive in different extent to the above three parameters. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Zhijuan Lai & Sai Hao & Shiqiu Peng & Bei Liu & Xiangqian Gu & Yu-Kun Qian, 2014. "On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1353-1368, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:3:p:1353-1368
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1155-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Kun Qian & Shiqiu Peng & Shun Liu & Shumin Chen & Ziqian Wang & Qilin Wan & Zitong Chen, 2018. "Assessing the influence of assimilating radar-observed radial winds on the simulation of a tropical cyclone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 279-298, October.

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