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Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

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  • Hong Du
  • Jun Xia
  • Sidong Zeng

Abstract

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Du & Jun Xia & Sidong Zeng, 2014. "Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 195-215, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:70:y:2014:i:1:p:195-215
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0808-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luxin Zhai & Qi Feng, 2009. "Spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in Gansu Province, Northwest China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(1), pages 1-24, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Ahani & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Ali Moridi, 2020. "Regionalization of watersheds based on the concept of rough set," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 883-899, October.
    2. L Liu & Z. X. Xu, 2016. "Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1195-1211, January.
    3. Reza Zamani & Hossein Tabari & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Extreme streamflow drought in the Karkheh river basin (Iran): probabilistic and regional analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 327-346, March.
    4. Hong Du & Jun Xia & Yi Yan & Yumeng Lu & Jinhua Li, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in Wuling Mountain Area (China) and Their Connection to Potential Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    5. Ramin Bahmani & Mostafa Khorsandi, 2015. "A discussion on “Extreme streamflow drought in Karkheh River Basin (Iran): probabilistic and regional analyses” by Reza Zamani et al," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 661-666, October.
    6. Junqiang Yao & Moyan Li & Qing Yang, 2018. "Moisture sources of a torrential rainfall event in the arid region of East Xinjiang, China, based on a Lagrangian model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 183-195, November.
    7. Evan Hajani & Ataur Rahman, 2018. "Design rainfall estimation: comparison between GEV and LP3 distributions and at-site and regional estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 67-88, August.
    8. Sara Hashempour Motlagh Shirazi & Davar Khalili & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa & Amin Shirvani, 2022. "Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation characteristics under different climatic conditions in Fars province, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 11348-11368, September.

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