Potential vorticity diagnosis of rapid intensification of very severe cyclone GIRI (2010) over the Bay of Bengal

The life cycle of Bay of Bengal cyclone GIRI, characterized by a rapid intensification during 36-h interval, is investigated. The cyclone under study underwent a period of explosive cyclogenesis from 0000 UTC 21 October to 1200 UTC 22 October 2010. During this period, the sea level pressure minimum at the center of cyclone dropped by 52 hPa. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data is used to perform the analysis of Q-vectors, K-Index and potential vorticity (PV) perturbation in order to diagnose the life cycle of this unusual cyclone. The analysis reveals that during the period of explosive development, the 500–700 hPa column-averaged Q-vector convergence (regions of quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent) directly above the surface cyclone had strengthened, which in turn affected the lower to middle-tropospheric ascent and associated surface cyclogenesis. The analysis also reveals that the presence of lower-tropospheric cyclogenetic forcing in the environment, characterized by reduced static stability as measured by very high values of the K-Index produced a burst of heavy precipitation during the development stage of the cyclone. The associated latent heat release produced a substantial diabatic positive PV anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere that caused lower-tropospheric height falls associated with the explosive cyclogenesis. Thus, diabatic consequence of the latent heat release fueled the explosive development of the cyclone. The intensification mechanism of the cyclone occurred in two stages. A diabatically generated lower-tropospheric positive PV anomaly dominated the rapid intensification stage after initial triggering by a positive upper-level PV anomaly. A limited verification of ECMWF model shows that the model could predict the rapid intensification of the cyclone to a large extent and landfall near observed landfall point and time. It predicted lowest central pressure of 970.5 hPa 24-h in advance with landfall near 19.7°N and 93.7°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010 against the lowest estimated central pressure of 950 hPa and observed landfall near 20.0°N and 93.5°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012