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aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides

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  • Changjiang Li
  • Tuhua Ma
  • Xinsheng Zhu

Abstract

We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions. Zhejiang Province (101,800 km 2 in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region. Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003 to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized, easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Changjiang Li & Tuhua Ma & Xinsheng Zhu, 2010. "aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 57-78, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:52:y:2010:i:1:p:57-78
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9351-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Changjiang Li & Tuhua Ma & Leling Sun & Wei Li & Aiping Zheng, 2012. "Application and verification of a fractal approach to landslide susceptibility mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 169-185, March.
    2. Xinfu Xing & Chenglong Wu & Jinhui Li & Xueyou Li & Limin Zhang & Rongjie He, 2021. "Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 97-117, March.
    3. Yen-Ming Chiang & Wei-Guo Cheng & Fi-John Chang, 2012. "A hybrid artificial neural network-based agri-economic model for predicting typhoon-induced losses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 769-787, September.
    4. Ram Ray & Jennifer Jacobs & Thomas Ballestero, 2011. "Regional landslide susceptibility: spatiotemporal variations under dynamic soil moisture conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1317-1337, December.
    5. Atta-ur-Rahman & Amir Khan & Andrew Collins & Fareen Qazi, 2011. "Causes and extent of environmental impacts of landslide hazard in the Himalayan region: a case study of Murree, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 413-434, May.

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