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Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

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  • Harpa Grímsdóttir
  • David Mcclung

Abstract

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified. Copyright Springer 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Harpa Grímsdóttir & David Mcclung, 2006. "Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(1), pages 127-153, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:127-153
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-005-5227-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Thumlert & Pascal Haegeli, 2018. "Describing the severity of avalanche terrain numerically using the observed terrain selection practices of professional guides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 89-115, March.
    2. Claudia Berlin & Frank Techel & Beat Kaspar Moor & Marcel Zwahlen & Rebecca Maria Hasler & for the Swiss National Cohort study group, 2019. "Snow avalanche deaths in Switzerland from 1995 to 2014—Results of a nation-wide linkage study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Hongmin An & Cunde Xiao & Minghu Ding, 2019. "The Spatial Pattern of Ski Areas and Its Driving Factors in China: A Strategy for Healthy Development of the Ski Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Jeremy Spencer & Walker Ashley, 2011. "Avalanche fatalities in the western United States: a comparison of three databases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 31-44, July.
    5. D. McClung, 2014. "Risk analyses for dry snow slab avalanches released by skier triggering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1139-1158, June.

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