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A Quantitative Assessment of the Human and Economic Hazard from Impact-generated Tsunami

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  • Steven Chesley
  • Steven Ward

Abstract

In this article, we assess the human and economic hazard posed by tsunami waves generated from impacts of sub-2 km diameter asteroids. Annually, on average, 182(+197/−123) people will be affected by impact-induced waves with a corresponding infrastructure loss of $18(+20/−12)M/y. Half of the tsunami hazard stems from impactors with diameters less than 300 m. One near Earth asteroid will survive atmospheric transit and strike somewhere into Earth’s oceans every 5880 years, on average. In the mean generic scenario, the tsunami from the impact affects 1.1 million people and destroys $110B of infrastructure. Copyright Springer 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Chesley & Steven Ward, 2006. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Human and Economic Hazard from Impact-generated Tsunami," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(3), pages 355-374, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:38:y:2006:i:3:p:355-374
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-005-1921-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Seth D. Baum, 2018. "Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 759-775, November.
    2. Iael Perez & Stefania Wörner & Walter Dragani & Guido Bacino & Rubén Medina, 2020. "Meteorite impacts in the ocean: the danger of tsunamis on the coast of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2339-2354, September.
    3. Damien Violeau, 2021. "Cosmogenic tsunamic risk assessment: a first application to the European Atlantic coasts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 735-753, January.
    4. Jason C. Reinhardt & Xi Chen & Wenhao Liu & Petar Manchev & M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 2016. "Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, February.
    5. Timothy Titus & D. Robertson & J. B. Sankey & L. Mastin & F. Rengers, 2023. "A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1355-1402, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asteroid; Impact; Tsunami;
    All these keywords.

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