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The Potential of Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for Rainfall Forecasting from Typhoons

Author

Listed:
  • Pao-Shan Yu
  • Shien-Tsung Chen
  • Chia-Jung Chen
  • Tao-Chang Yang

Abstract

This study applies the fuzzy multi-objective approach to forecast short-term (around 24 h) typhoon rainfall, which can be implemented without much background meteorological knowledge. The physical characteristics of 40 typhoons, including route, central pressure, central velocity and cyclonic radius, were used as the data set. The fuzzy multi-objective method ‘mined’ information from the database to forecast both the depth and pattern of rainfall, which were then combined to estimate a cumulative rainfall curve. The results of calibration with reference to 40 historical typhoon events and the results of validation using another five typhoon events indicate that the proposed model has the potential to forecast short-term cumulative rainfall curves if more variables can be included and more historical typhoon events can be collected to enlarge the database. Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Pao-Shan Yu & Shien-Tsung Chen & Chia-Jung Chen & Tao-Chang Yang, 2005. "The Potential of Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for Rainfall Forecasting from Typhoons," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 34(2), pages 131-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:34:y:2005:i:2:p:131-150
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-8889-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Hexiang Liu & Da-Lin Zhang & Jianwei Chen & Qingjuan Xu, 2013. "Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency with a wavelet neural network model incorporating natural orthogonal expansion and combined weights," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 63-78, January.

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