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Models of Ground Deformation and Eruption Magnitude from a Deep Source at Popocatepetl Volcano, Central Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Espíndola
  • Maria De Lourdes Godinez
  • Victor Espindola

Abstract

Popocatepetl volcano in Central Mexico entered its latest stage of activity in late 1994. Due to the nature of its eruptive history and its location in a heavily populated area, it constitutes the highest risk in the cuntry. For this reason the volcano is currently under continuous surveillance; yet the interpretation of the information is carried out mostly on empirical basis and an integrating working model is lacking, at the present. In this paper, models of elastic deformation and mass erupted are developed to estimate the mass erupted according to the observed deformation patterns. We present results obtained from input based upon a gravimetric model of the volcano's internal structure and reasonable physical parameters of the volcanic system. These results are helpful in the planning of deformation and gravimetric observations aimed to forecast a major eruption. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Espíndola & Maria De Lourdes Godinez & Victor Espindola, 2004. "Models of Ground Deformation and Eruption Magnitude from a Deep Source at Popocatepetl Volcano, Central Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(1), pages 191-207, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:31:y:2004:i:1:p:191-207
    DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000020260.60021.b1
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