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A Systematic Test on Precursory Seismic Quiescence in Armenia

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  • G. Zöller
  • S. Hainzl
  • J. Kurths
  • J. Zschau

Abstract

A systematic test on seismic quiescence occurring before largeearthquakes is conducted. For a fixed geographical location, the degree ofclustering in space and time is analysed and the results are testedagainst randomized earthquake catalogs.A gridding technique allows to investigate the entirespatial volume covered by a certain earthquake catalog. The result is a significance K( x,t) for seismic quiescence as a function ofspace and time. A point ( x,t) is considered as quiet, if K( x,t) exceeds a threshold value K (99) such that the nullhypothesis is rejected with a probability of p≥ 99%. Becauseearthquake clusters, like aftershocks and swarm events, generateerroneous quiescence, declustered catalogs are also investigated andthe influence of the clusters is discussed.Applying this method to an earthquake catalog from Armenia,several cases of seismic quiescence before mainshocks are obtained.These quiescence periods occur in the originaldata as well as in the declustered data. Using alarm conditions, itis found that quiescence periods and mainshocks are correlated`better-than-chance'. Thus, the results support the claim thatseismic quiescence makes a contribution to the improvement of seismichazard assessment. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Suggested Citation

  • G. Zöller & S. Hainzl & J. Kurths & J. Zschau, 2002. "A Systematic Test on Precursory Seismic Quiescence in Armenia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 26(3), pages 245-263, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:26:y:2002:i:3:p:245-263
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1015685006180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Balassanian & S. Nazaretian & A. Avanessian & A. Arakelian & V. Igumnov & M. Badalian & A. Martirossian & V. Ambartsumian & A. Tovmassian, 1997. "The New Seismic Zonation Map for the Territory of Armenia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 15(2), pages 231-249, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi-Hsuan Wu & John Rundle & Chien-chih Chen, 2015. "Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1357-1371, March.
    2. Mendy Bengoubou-Valérius & Dominique Gibert, 2013. "Bootstrap determination of the reliability of b-values: an assessment of statistical estimators with synthetic magnitude series," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 443-459, January.
    3. Javad N. Rashidi & Mehdi Ghassemieh, 2023. "Predicting the magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes using machine learning techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 545-570, August.

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