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Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

Author

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  • O. Singh
  • Tariq Ali Khan
  • Md. Rahman

Abstract

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India. The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Suggested Citation

  • O. Singh & Tariq Ali Khan & Md. Rahman, 2002. "Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 25(2), pages 101-115, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:101-115
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1013736923929
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    Cited by:

    1. Lareef Zubair, 2004. "May 2003 Disaster in Sri Lanka and Cyclone 01-B in the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(3), pages 303-318, November.

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