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Robust Statistical Methods to Discriminate Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Precursory Signals: Implications with Earthquake Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • V. Cuomo
  • G. Di Bello
  • V. Lapenna
  • S. Piscitelli
  • I. Telesca
  • M. Macchiato
  • C. Serio

Abstract

In this study, we propose a robuststatistical method to discern anomalous patternsin geoelectrical time series measured in a seismicarea of the Southern Apennine chain. First, a filteringprocedure to remove seasonal effects related tometeo-climatic fluctuations was carried out.Then, we selected an autoregressive model able todescribe the time fluctuations of geoelectricalsignals and propose a method to obtain an objectiveestimate of probability of occurrence for each extremeevent detected in the time series. Our applications inSouthern Italy allow us to hypothesize that theambiguity of short-term prediction is within thecomplicated dynamics of the physical processresponsible for electrical anomalies observed on theearth's surface. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • V. Cuomo & G. Di Bello & V. Lapenna & S. Piscitelli & I. Telesca & M. Macchiato & C. Serio, 2000. "Robust Statistical Methods to Discriminate Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Precursory Signals: Implications with Earthquake Prediction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 21(2), pages 247-261, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:21:y:2000:i:2:p:247-261
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008157730467
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