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An ensemble forecasting method for tsunami warning

Author

Listed:
  • Guangsheng Zhao

    (Tsinghua University
    Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources
    Tsinghua University)

  • Xiaojing Niu

    (Tsinghua University
    Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Tsunami warning driven by the earthquake rapid report can provide rapid prediction of tsunami threats after an earthquake occurs. However, there is significant uncertainty in the earthquake data obtained immediately after an earthquake occurs, and further information such as slip heterogeneity cannot be obtained in a timely manner. The uncertainty of earthquake rapid report consequently results in significant uncertainty in tsunami forecasting. Thus, an ensemble forecasting method for tsunamis has been proposed to quantitatively estimate uncertainty and tsunami hazard, considering the uncertainty of magnitude, epicenter, and heterogeneous slip. The deviation distribution of magnitude and epicenter in earthquake rapid report is approximately adopted based on the historical data statistics between widely used earthquake datasets. The heterogeneous slip is generated using the well-known CERS (Codes for Earthquake Rupture and ground-motion Simulation) model. The ensemble simulation can be completed in a short period of time to obtain the probability distribution of tsunami height, using a fast simulation method based on the unit source reconstruction. Taking a hypothetical Mw 9.0 earthquake tsunami event as an example, the forecasting results and efficiency of the ensemble method have been discussed. An optimized scenario sampling has been suggested by comparing with a statistically stable results obtained from refined scenarios sampling.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangsheng Zhao & Xiaojing Niu, 2025. "An ensemble forecasting method for tsunami warning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 6651-6675, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07068-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07068-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcos Moreno & Matthias Rosenau & Onno Oncken, 2010. "2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7312), pages 198-202, September.
    2. J. Selva & S. Lorito & M. Volpe & F. Romano & R. Tonini & P. Perfetti & F. Bernardi & M. Taroni & A. Scala & A. Babeyko & F. Løvholt & S. J. Gibbons & J. Macías & M. J. Castro & J. M. González-Vida & , 2021. "Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
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