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Personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions under different flash flood characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Ruikang Zhang

    (Wuhan University
    Wuhan University
    Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Dedi Liu

    (Wuhan University
    Wuhan University
    University of the Western Cape)

  • Yongxin Xu

    (University of the Western Cape)

  • Changjiang Xu

    (Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Xi Chen

    (Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

Abstract

Emergency evacuation has received more attention as an effective tool of flash flood disaster prevention that calls for systematic thinking rooted in natural and social sciences. Although personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions (EED) after receiving a flood warning have been widely discussed, few studies have referred this issue to the flash flood characteristics. This study explored the personal factors influencing EED under different flash flood characteristics (i.e., the frequency, occurrence time, and severity of flash floods) through field survey data. Three typical flash flood characteristics in three towns were selected as case studies. An ordinary logistical model and path analysis were used to analyze the independent influence and influence process of the personal factors on evacuation intention under the three flash flood characteristics. The results showed that personalized risk perception and warning type consistently influenced evacuation intention regardless of the flash flood characteristics, while the independent influence of flood experience and reliance on hazard information on evacuation intention was varied with the flash flood characteristics. Perceived exposure influenced evacuation intention through the mediations of flood experience when there were high-frequency, recent, and loss-causing flash floods, and of risk perception when there were low-frequency, distant, and few-loss-causing flash floods. The effect of warning type on evacuation intention was varied with the flash flood characteristics if the warning type changed from the suggestive rainstorm red warning to mandatory ready-to-evacuate warning. However, if the warning type changed from the ready-to-evacuate to immediate-evacuation warning, there was no significant difference in this effect regardless of the flash flood characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to implement distinctive emergency management according to specific flash flood characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruikang Zhang & Dedi Liu & Yongxin Xu & Changjiang Xu & Xi Chen, 2025. "Personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions under different flash flood characteristics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4731-4757, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06982-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06982-7
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