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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Northern Algeria using the Parametric-Historic method

Author

Listed:
  • Fouzi Bellalem

    (Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG)

  • Vasily A. Pavlenko

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Sergio Molina

    (University of Alicante
    University of Alicante)

  • Said Maouche

    (Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG)

  • Rashad Sawires

    (Assiut University)

  • Mourad Bezzeghoud

    (Universidade de Évora)

  • Abdelhak Talbi

    (Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG)

  • Mourad Mobarki

    (Astrophysique et Géophysique, CRAAG)

Abstract

In this study the seismic hazard in Northern Algeria is analyzed by using a probabilistic approach, and specifically the parametric-historic method. This method enables the incorporation of the entire accessible seismic history into the analysis and effectively addresses both the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of the seismicity parameters. The recently compiled earthquake catalog covering the region and spanning the period from 1658 to 2018 was used for estimating the seismicity parameters. The seismic hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) were calculated for return period of 475 years for rock, stiff soil, and soft soil conditions. The uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the major cities in Northern Algeria were calculated for the same conditions. The largest PGA values are observed near the cities of Chlef, Algiers, Blida, Medea, and Tipasa. Arguably the most important obtained result is evident in the seismic hazard estimates for the capital city of Algiers, which significantly exceed previously published estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Fouzi Bellalem & Vasily A. Pavlenko & Sergio Molina & Said Maouche & Rashad Sawires & Mourad Bezzeghoud & Abdelhak Talbi & Mourad Mobarki, 2025. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Northern Algeria using the Parametric-Historic method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4929-4960, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06978-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06978-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Sawires & J. Peláez & H. Ibrahim & R. Fat-Helbary & J. Henares & M. Hamdache, 2016. "Delineation and characterization of a new seismic source model for seismic hazard studies in Egypt," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1823-1864, February.
    2. Rashad Sawires & Miguel A. Santoyo & José A. Peláez & Jesús Henares, 2021. "Western Mexico seismic source model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Jalisco-Colima-Michoacán region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2819-2867, February.
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    4. R. Sawires & J. A. Peláez & H. A. Ibrahim & R. E. Fat-Helbary & J. Henares & M. Hamdache, 2016. "Delineation and characterization of a new seismic source model for seismic hazard studies in Egypt," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1823-1864, February.
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