IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i2d10.1007_s11069-024-06882-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing landslide susceptibility of forest roads by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in of forest planning unit of Turkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Derya Mumcu Kucuker

    (Karadeniz Technical University)

Abstract

Forest roads are essential for the management of forest goods and services. The interests in Landslide Susceptibility Maps (LSMs) an important decision basis has become one of the crucial concerns in landslide risk areas in order to determine where to build new roads or to take necessary precautions on existing roads. This study aims to reveal the potential risk of forest roads for landslide in the Of Planning Unit. The forest roads located in Black Sea Region in Turkiye covering this area, suffer from landslides due to geologic and climatic condition. For this purpose, LSM was created by combining the MCDA Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) related to expert knowledge and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Twelve landslide-related criteria, including slope, bedrock type, relative relief, drainage density and frequency, rainfall, and land cover, were fabricated in raster format by ArcGIS domain. After the effects or weights of each factor were calculated by the pairwise comparison matrix in AHP, each layer was assigned to weight. The potential landslide areas were separated into five different categories, including extremely low, low, moderate, high, and extremely high through overlay analysis in ArcMap. Then overlapping analysis with forest roads and LSM was performed to obtain information on what planned roads are located in landslide-prone areas. The results indicated that this area is greatly susceptible to landslides. In addition, 18.45% of all roads are detected to be under high and extremely high risk, 28.7% of all roads are figured out to be under moderate susceptibility classes, and the remains are found to be under low and extremely low susceptibility classes. With respect to the high performance of AUC value (81%), the AHP technique can be used in landslide hazard risk management. The implemented methodology may be an effective tool for local authorities and decision-makers in the planning of road networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Derya Mumcu Kucuker, 2025. "Analyzing landslide susceptibility of forest roads by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in of forest planning unit of Turkiye," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 2323-2345, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06882-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06882-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06882-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06882-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamid Reza Pourghasemi & Amiya Gayen & Sungjae Park & Chang-Wook Lee & Saro Lee, 2018. "Assessment of Landslide-Prone Areas and Their Zonation Using Logistic Regression, LogitBoost, and NaïveBayes Machine-Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Juan Remondo & Alberto González & José De Terán & Antonio Cendrero & Andrea Fabbri & Chang-Jo Chung, 2003. "Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(3), pages 437-449, November.
    3. Anna Roccati & Guido Paliaga & Fabio Luino & Francesco Faccini & Laura Turconi, 2021. "GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for Land Use Planning and Risk Assessment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, February.
    4. M. Ercanoglu & C. Gokceoglu & Th. Van Asch, 2004. "Landslide Susceptibility Zoning North of Yenice (NW Turkey) by Multivariate Statistical Techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Chang-Jo Chung & Andrea Fabbri, 2003. "Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(3), pages 451-472, November.
    6. Thomas L. Saaty & Luis G. Vargas, 2012. "Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-4614-3597-6, December.
    7. Hassan Abedi Gheshlaghi & Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Thomas Blaschke, 2020. "GIS-based forest fire risk mapping using the analytical network process and fuzzy logic," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(3), pages 481-499, February.
    8. Ujjwal Sur & Prafull Singh & Praveen Kumar Rai & Jay Krishna Thakur, 2021. "Landslide probability mapping by considering fuzzy numerical risk factor (FNRF) and landscape change for road corridor of Uttarakhand, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13526-13554, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Costanzo & C. Cappadonia & C. Conoscenti & E. Rotigliano, 2012. "Exporting a Google Earth ™ aided earth-flow susceptibility model: a test in central Sicily," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 103-114, March.
    2. E. Rotigliano & C. Cappadonia & C. Conoscenti & D. Costanzo & V. Agnesi, 2012. "Slope units-based flow susceptibility model: using validation tests to select controlling factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 143-153, March.
    3. Massimo Conforti & Pietro Aucelli & Gaetano Robustelli & Fabio Scarciglia, 2011. "Geomorphology and GIS analysis for mapping gully erosion susceptibility in the Turbolo stream catchment (Northern Calabria, Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 881-898, March.
    4. Massimo Conforti & Gaetano Robustelli & Francesco Muto & Salvatore Critelli, 2012. "Application and validation of bivariate GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment for the Vitravo river catchment (Calabria, south Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 127-141, March.
    5. Halil Akinci & Mustafa Zeybek, 2021. "Comparing classical statistic and machine learning models in landslide susceptibility mapping in Ardanuc (Artvin), Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1515-1543, September.
    6. Ananta Pradhan & Yun-Tae Kim, 2014. "Relative effect method of landslide susceptibility zonation in weathered granite soil: a case study in Deokjeok-ri Creek, South Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1189-1217, June.
    7. A. Clerici & S. Perego & C. Tellini & P. Vescovi, 2010. "Landslide failure and runout susceptibility in the upper T. Ceno valley (Northern Apennines, Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 1-29, January.
    8. G. Chevalier & V. Medina & M. Hürlimann & A. Bateman, 2013. "Debris-flow susceptibility analysis using fluvio-morphological parameters and data mining: application to the Central-Eastern Pyrenees," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 213-238, June.
    9. Omid Rahmati & Ali Haghizadeh & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi & Farhad Noormohamadi, 2016. "Gully erosion susceptibility mapping: the role of GIS-based bivariate statistical models and their comparison," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1231-1258, June.
    10. Krishna Devkota & Amar Regmi & Hamid Pourghasemi & Kohki Yoshida & Biswajeet Pradhan & In Ryu & Megh Dhital & Omar Althuwaynee, 2013. "Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling–Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 135-165, January.
    11. E. Rotigliano & V. Agnesi & C. Cappadonia & C. Conoscenti, 2011. "The role of the diagnostic areas in the assessment of landslide susceptibility models: a test in the sicilian chain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 981-999, September.
    12. Mustafa Topuz & Mehmet Deniz, 2023. "Application of GIS and AHP for land use suitability analysis: case of Demirci district (Turkey)," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Anna Roccati & Guido Paliaga & Fabio Luino & Francesco Faccini & Laura Turconi, 2021. "GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for Land Use Planning and Risk Assessment," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Jaime Bonachea & Juan Remondo & José Ramón Díaz De Terán & Alberto González‐Díez & Antonio Cendrero, 2009. "Landslide Risk Models for Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(11), pages 1629-1643, November.
    15. N. Sabatakakis & G. Koukis & E. Vassiliades & S. Lainas, 2013. "Landslide susceptibility zonation in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 523-543, January.
    16. J. Jiménez-Perálvarez & C. Irigaray & R. El Hamdouni & J. Chacón, 2009. "Building models for automatic landslide-susceptibility analysis, mapping and validation in ArcGIS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 571-590, September.
    17. Anna Małka, 2021. "Landslide susceptibility mapping of Gdynia using geographic information system-based statistical models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 639-674, May.
    18. Andrea Ferrando & Francesco Faccini & Guido Paliaga & Paola Coratza, 2021. "A Quantitative GIS and AHP Based Analysis for Geodiversity Assessment and Mapping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    19. Bosy A. El-Haddad & Ahmed M. Youssef & Hamid R. Pourghasemi & Biswajeet Pradhan & Abdel-Hamid El-Shater & Mohamed H. El-Khashab, 2021. "Flood susceptibility prediction using four machine learning techniques and comparison of their performance at Wadi Qena Basin, Egypt," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 83-114, January.
    20. Francesca Vergari, 2015. "Assessing soil erosion hazard in a key badland area of Central Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 71-95, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06882-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.