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Method for probabilistic location of early instrumental earthquakes based on their macroseismic and instrumental data: evaluation of effectiveness and application for the Baikal Region

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  • Alexey N. Morozov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Alena I. Filippova

    (Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Vladimir E. Asming

    (Kola Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Yan B. Radziminovich

    (Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Baikal Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Natalya V. Vaganova

    (N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article presents an improved probabilistic method, implemented in the ProLom software, for locating early instrumental earthquakes based on the joint analysis of macroseismic intensity data and instrumental seismic wave arrival times. Developed for earthquakes with very limited data, it was applied to six events in the Baikal region (1902–1925), where parameters could not previously be calculated using only macroseismic or instrumental data. The method’s effectiveness was demonstrated through testing with modern earthquake data using simulated limited datasets, typical of the six analyzed events. Computed epicenters, with varying degrees of accuracy, are predominantly located in the southern Baikal region, mostly associated with the seismically active Baikal rift, with some plausible locations in adjacent western Transbaikalia. The method enables reliable reconstruction of early instrumental earthquakes, refining regional earthquake catalogs and improving seismic hazard assessments. However, its accuracy depends on the number, distribution, and reliability of intensity data points and the availability of instrumental records.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey N. Morozov & Alena I. Filippova & Vladimir E. Asming & Yan B. Radziminovich & Natalya V. Vaganova, 2025. "Method for probabilistic location of early instrumental earthquakes based on their macroseismic and instrumental data: evaluation of effectiveness and application for the Baikal Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(18), pages 21665-21682, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:18:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07659-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07659-5
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