Identification of heat-prone areas in a mixed land use mediterranean watershed based on risk factors identified through spatial and temporal analysis

The heat index (HI), based on air temperature and relative humidity, assesses the potential health risks associated with heat exposure. This study introduces a novel methodology linking HI with land use patterns and climate change. Focusing on a mixed land-use watershed, it aims to enhance sustainable environmental management strategies, particularly in heat-vulnerable Mediterranean regions. By applying the methodology through the use of R software to calculate HI and Sen’s Slope statistics and ArcGIS version 10.3.1 to spatially overlay the risk criteria layers, heat-prone areas and priority zones were identified using the ‘risk categorization scheme’ and ‘action priority level’ in the Küçük Menderes River Basin, a climate-sensitive region in Türkiye. Climate projections from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology’s Earth System Model (Medium Resolution), downscaled to 1 km under the RCP 8.5 scenario and covering the period 2025–2100, were employed. Land use classes were reclassified into eight categories to examine HI-land use interactions. The results indicate that from 1975 to 2000, the region was categorized as ‘danger’ due to high HI levels, with projections escalating it to ‘extreme danger’ by 2100. Urban areas and water bodies exhibited the highest HI, whereas forests, orchards, and non-irrigated agricultural lands helped mitigate heat stress. The findings offer crucial guidance for local authorities and urban planners in designing targeted heat mitigation strategies, thus enhancing climate resilience in the region.