Analysis of meteorological drought characteristics and risk regionalization in Xinjiang, China

To reveal the characteristics of meteorological drought changes over time in Xinjiang, we used daily meteorological data from 60 national stations spanning 1960–2021. The Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI) was selected as the drought evaluation metric, and drought levels were classified accordingly. We analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in drought intensity and duration using Morlet wavelet analysis, M–K mutation test, and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) methods. Based on the four-factor natural disaster risk theory and Xinjiang's natural and socioeconomic conditions, we developed a comprehensive drought risk assessment index system and the Drought Risk Index (DRI) model. This enabled drought disaster risk regionalization, providing theoretical support and a scientific foundation for effective drought management in Xinjiang. Results indicated that drought severity in Xinjiang showed a declining trend since the late 1980s, indicating some relief in drought conditions. Spatial distribution of drought characteristics varied significantly: Northern Xinjiang experienced more severe drought than Southern Xinjiang; spring was prone to extensive drought across the region, while summer drought severity increased from south to north, and autumn drought conditions were generally milder. The MCI index effectively monitored drought occurrence in terms of timing and area, demonstrating good applicability in Xinjiang. Drought disaster risk exhibited clear spatial differences, with higher risk in the southwestern and central-northern parts of Xinjiang, while the western region demonstrated a comparatively lower risk.