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Identification of potential earthquake source locations zones in the Altai-Sayan mountain region: a new approach based on the morphometric terrain analysis and the geodynamic modeling

Author

Listed:
  • A. L. Sobisevich

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • G. M. Steblov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. A. Sentsov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. V. Deev

    (Russian Academy of Sciences
    Novosibirsk State University)

  • L. V. Eppelbaum

    (Tel Aviv University
    Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University)

  • A. O. Agibalov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Moscow State University)

  • I. M. Aleshin

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • G. R. Balashov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • O. T. Kamenev

    (Institute of Automation and Control Processes of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. N. Kotov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • V. M. Makeev

    (Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS)

  • V. P. Perederin

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • F. V. Perederin

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • N. K. Rosenberg

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • K. I. Kholodkov

    (Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • O. V. Safronov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences
    Novosibirsk State University)

Abstract

The usefulness of identifying seismically active zones in the Altai-Sayan region has been demonstrated through the analysis of anomalies in three morphometric terrain parameters (depth of vertical dissection, average height, and difference between second-order and third-order base level surfaces), processed using fuzzy logic tools. According to GNSS data and earthquake focal mechanisms, active faults strike-slip tectonic settings, where the major compression axis strikes northeast. Computer simulations have shown that this process leads to the accumulation of extensional horizontal stress in zones occupying approximately 50% of the investigated area, where 72% of all earthquake epicenters are localized and 83% of those have a moment magnitude of 5.5 or greater. The results of the morphometric terrain analysis and computer simulation enabled the delineation of 13 potential earthquake source zones with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 5.5. Their configuration aligns well with observed recent seismicity trends and paleoseismological evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • A. L. Sobisevich & G. M. Steblov & A. A. Sentsov & E. V. Deev & L. V. Eppelbaum & A. O. Agibalov & I. M. Aleshin & G. R. Balashov & O. T. Kamenev & A. N. Kotov & V. M. Makeev & V. P. Perederin & F. V., 2025. "Identification of potential earthquake source locations zones in the Altai-Sayan mountain region: a new approach based on the morphometric terrain analysis and the geodynamic modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(17), pages 19863-19887, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:17:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07596-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07596-3
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