Unlocking urban resilience potential of a city through comprehending carbon-thermal emission scenarios

With urbanization projected to triple by 2050 and cities already accounting for approximately 75% of global carbon emissions (CEs), there is a pressing concern over “temperature locking” effects due to global warming. Rising carbon–thermal emissions in cities are aggravated by urban development carried out based on plans that lack mitigation provisions. Achieving the UN’s imperative goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C has become a repetitive refrain, with no credible illustrative mitigation pathways (IMPs) remaining. Current projections now indicate a temperature rise of at least 2.5–2.9 °C, significantly exceeding the Paris Agreement’s targets. The concentration of CEs exerts impacts both globally and locally, driving climate change and likely contributing to more frequent extreme heat events and health risks such as heat stress and suffocation in cities. This study presents a novel approach for Indian cities by integrating fossil-fuel and land-cover CE with land surface temperature (LST) into a fuzzy, situation-centric framework. Using 2020 as a COVID-19 baseline, it calibrates emissions and develops high-resolution composite maps to guide targeted mitigation planning and enhance urban resilience. The results indicate composite emission scenarios, classified into high, medium, and low carbon–thermal zones, each linked to specific mitigations aimed at maximizing local absorption and minimizing emissions impacts.