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Observational evidence of stratospheric cooling and surface warming due to an increase of stratospheric water vapor by Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai

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  • Venugopal Veenus

    (Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, ISRO
    University of Kerala)

  • Siddarth Shankar Das

    (Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, ISRO)

Abstract

The stratospheric water vapor injected on the eruption of the submarine volcano, Hunga-Tonga Hunga Ha’apai, caused cooling in the stratosphere and warming at the Earth’s surface. The Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observed water vapor mixing ratios as high as 12 ppmv in the stratosphere. The surface temperature observed by the India Meteorological Department from 350 ground stations shows a warming of ∼4 K. This is accompanied by the stratospheric cooling observed from COSMIC-2 radio occultation measurements. The ERA5 reanalysis data over the Indian region also shows a similar cooling during March 2022. The radiative cooling due to the Tonga-injected water vapor is confirmed by the model simulations using the radiative-convective model. The concurrent warming points to the influence of stratospheric water vapor in the surface temperature anomaly over the Indian region.

Suggested Citation

  • Venugopal Veenus & Siddarth Shankar Das, 2025. "Observational evidence of stratospheric cooling and surface warming due to an increase of stratospheric water vapor by Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(11), pages 13295-13304, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07320-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07320-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stuart Jenkins & Chris Smith & Myles Allen & Roy Grainger, 2023. "Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 127-129, February.
    2. Corwin J. Wright & Neil P. Hindley & M. Joan Alexander & Mathew Barlow & Lars Hoffmann & Cathryn N. Mitchell & Fred Prata & Marie Bouillon & Justin Carstens & Cathy Clerbaux & Scott M. Osprey & Nick P, 2022. "Surface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption," Nature, Nature, vol. 609(7928), pages 741-746, September.
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