Identification of flood causes and flood modeling for the reconstruction of affected land in Bireuen District, Aceh Province, Indonesia

In recent years, Bireuen District in Aceh Province has experienced frequent and widespread flooding. This study estimates flood-prone areas using the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, with input data including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), precipitation, soil type, land cover, and the district’s spatial masterplan. Results show that environmental changes caused by extreme precipitation led to a 5–7% difference in areas affected by flooding, while differences in land cover patterns have only a 1% effect. There is no significant correlation between flood-affected areas and anthropogenic pressure, represented by population growth rate. Based on current land cover conditions, flooding potential covers 5.1% of the district’s total area, while the district’s spatial masterplan reduces flood-prone areas to 2.4% of the district’s total area by including river buffer zones. The study demonstrates the ability of spatial modeling to estimate flood potential and identify possible causes. It also quantifies the impacts of implementing the spatial masterplan published by the local government and their response to flood possibilities. Overall, this study provides insights into flood-prone areas in Bireuen District and the effectiveness of the district’s spatial masterplan in reducing flood risks. The findings can help inform flood management strategies in the region.