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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: an investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Ludovic Fülöp

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland)

  • Päivi Mäntyniemi

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Marianne Malm

    (AFRY Finland)

  • Gabriel Toro

    (Lettis Consultants International)

  • María J. Crespo

    (PRINCIPIA Ingenieros Consultores
    Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSI Minas Y Energía)

  • Timo Schmitt

    (TÜV SÜD Industrie Service)

  • Simon Burck

    (Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK))

  • Pekka Välikangas

    (Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK))

Abstract

We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, Mmax, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of Mmax is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10−5 but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludovic Fülöp & Päivi Mäntyniemi & Marianne Malm & Gabriel Toro & María J. Crespo & Timo Schmitt & Simon Burck & Pekka Välikangas, 2023. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: an investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 111-132, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05666-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Musson, 1997. "Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 15(2), pages 105-119, May.
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