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Confirmation bias and the plausible distribution of evidence

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  • Ulrike Hahn

    (Birkbeck College, University of London, Psychological Sciences)

Abstract

This paper discusses different, inter-related notions of confirmation bias as classified by Nickerson (Rev Gen Psychol 2(2):175–220, 1998), distinguishing broadly between confirmation bias in evidence search, evidence selection, evidence evaluation, and evidence communication. It then sets out an overlooked rational basis for seeming bias in evidence search that stems from reasonable expectations about the real-world distribution of evidence in favour and against a claim. The implications of this for communication and argumentation are discussed, as are the implications of taking into account plausible evidence distributions for research on bias more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrike Hahn, 2025. "Confirmation bias and the plausible distribution of evidence," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 24(2), pages 231-248, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:24:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11299-025-00360-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11299-025-00360-x
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