Analysis and forecasting Iran's copper market to move towards low-carbon in the face of climate change

Climate change mitigation and carbon reduction initiatives have emerged as critical policy priorities for governments and societies in the twenty-first century. The increasing demand for essential metals such as lithium, graphene, cobalt, and particularly copper—an indispensable element in renewable energy technologies and sustainable infrastructure—has further highlighted the necessity of evaluating copper ore reserves, production trends, and market dynamics. Understanding these aspects within the context of domestic and international developments and forecasting future market conditions in resource-rich nations is vital to ensuring long-term sustainability. This study employs a hybrid approach that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to examine the Iranian copper market. It integrates time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) models and soft computing techniques to identify and predict key market trends. The analysis highlights the impact of various internal and external factors, including government policies, global economic fluctuations, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions, on copper supply and demand. Specifically, significant events such as Iran’s accession to and withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), public health crises, and domestic social unrest are assessed for their influence on market stability and investment trends. Findings indicate that while the growing demand for copper in green industries and low-carbon technologies presents substantial long-term expansion opportunities, short-term volatilities persist due to energy price fluctuations, trade frictions, and political uncertainties. The predictive modeling results suggest that strengthening coordination between mining operations and value-added industries, developing financial instruments such as copper futures options, and investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects are essential strategies for stabilizing the Iranian copper market and enhancing its contribution to a low-carbon economy. Ultimately, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s copper market, offering strategic policy recommendations to enhance market resilience, improve risk management amid global and regional crises, and position Iran as a key player in the transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon economic framework.