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Approximations for the Boundary Crossing Probabilities of Moving Sums of Random Variables

Author

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  • Jack Noonan

    (Cardiff University)

  • Anatoly Zhigljavsky

    (Cardiff University)

Abstract

In this paper we study approximations for the boundary crossing probabilities of moving sums of i.i.d. normal random variables. We approximate a discrete time problem with a continuous time problem allowing us to apply established theory for stationary Gaussian processes. By then subsequently correcting approximations for discrete time, we show that the developed approximations are very accurate even for a small window length. Also, they have high accuracy when the original r.v. are not exactly normal and when the weights in the moving window are not all equal. We then provide accurate and simple approximations for ARL, the average run length until crossing the boundary.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Noonan & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2021. "Approximations for the Boundary Crossing Probabilities of Moving Sums of Random Variables," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 873-892, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:23:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-019-09769-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-019-09769-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiao Wang & Joseph Glaz, 2014. "Variable Window Scan Statistics for Normal Data," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10-12), pages 2489-2504, May.
    2. Joseph Glaz & Joseph Naus & Xiao Wang, 2012. "Approximations and Inequalities for Moving Sums," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 597-616, September.
    3. Haiman, George, 1999. "First passage time for some stationary processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 231-248, April.
    4. Wang, Xiao & Zhao, Bo & Glaz, Joseph, 2014. "A multiple window scan statistic for time series models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 196-203.
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