Integrated model for assessing the dual role of biomass in energy transition and forest carbon dynamics

Biomass is a widely available renewable energy source, yet its complex role in decarbonization across various sectors remains insufficiently explored. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the role of biomass in Romania’s decarbonization trajectory, focusing on its implications for energy consumption, emissions reduction, and environmental sustainability. Utilizing three scenarios—NECP, Medium Ambition, and High Ambition—this paper examines the potential outcomes of reduced biomass utilization in heating and cooling sectors, as well as electricity and heat production, until 2050. Through a combination of historical data analysis and scenario modeling using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software, key findings arise regarding primary and final energy consumption trends, biomass consumption patterns, CO2 emissions, and local pollution levels. The results indicate that ambitious biomass reduction targets, particularly in the high ambition scenario, can lead to significant reductions in primary energy consumption and net emissions, with notable improvements in air quality. The pivotal role of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in achieving carbon neutrality is underscored. This paper contributes to the scientific understanding of biomass’s role in decarbonization efforts across all sectors and provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable energy practices.