Agriculture in the face of climate change and socio-economic prospects to 2050 in Senegal

This article focuses on agriculture in the face of climate change and the socio-economic outlook to 2050. We used daily observation data from simulations of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and simulations of the AGMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) agro-climatic model to characterise and analyse agriculture, as well as socio-economics, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using the TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment) climate-economic model. The results show that by 2050, the start of the agricultural seasons will be delayed, from 15 June (9 days) for RCP4.5 / 27 June (18 days) for RCP8.5 in the south to 5 August (3 days) RCP4.5 / 15 August (6 days) RCP8.5 in the north. Thus, on average for both scenarios, the length of the season would decrease more rapidly in the south, with 18 days compared with 6 days in the north. Rainfall would decrease to 120 mm, but the trend shows an intensification of long, medium or short dry sequences and wet extremes. Minimum and maximum temperatures will rise by up to 1.5 $$^{\circ }$$ C and even 2.5 $$^{\circ }$$ C respectively. In terms of agricultural yields, millet and maize (family C3) could fall by around 49% for millet and 48% for maize, while groundnuts (family C4) would increase by around 54%. Household vulnerability will increase considerably, with net income losses between -13.2% (RCP4.5) and -7.6% (RCP8.5). Poverty rates would also increase, with 3.7% and 2.2% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The less critical socio-economic situation under the RCP8.5 scenario compared with RCP4.5 could be attributed to the positive sensitivity of the C4 family of groundnuts used in Senegal. As a way forward, we have proposed the implementation of a functional Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system in order to become more resilient to climate change. These results underline the urgent need to act to address the alarming situation of vulnerability and food insecurity in the face of climate disruption.