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Estimating the risk of cancer with and without a screening history

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  • Dongfeng Wu

    (University of Louisville)

Abstract

A probability method to estimate cancer risk for asymptomatic individuals for the rest of life was developed based on one’s current age and screening history using the disease progressive model. The risk is a function of the transition probability density from the disease-free to the preclinical state, the sojourn time in the preclinical state and the screening sensitivity if one had a screening history with negative results. The method can be applied to any chronic disease. As an example, the method was applied to estimate women’s breast cancer risk using parameters estimated from the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York under two scenarios: with and without a screening history, and obtain some meaningful results.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongfeng Wu, 2025. "Estimating the risk of cancer with and without a screening history," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 702-712, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:31:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10985-025-09662-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10985-025-09662-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dongfeng Wu & Gary L. Rosner & Lyle Broemeling, 2005. "MLE and Bayesian Inference of Age-Dependent Sensitivity and Transition Probability in Periodic Screening," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 1056-1063, December.
    2. Wu Dongfeng & Kafadar Karen & Rosner Gary L. & Broemeling Lyle D., 2012. "The Lead Time Distribution When Lifetime is Subject to Competing Risks in Cancer Screening," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, April.
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