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An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind

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  • Silverberg, Gerald
  • Verspagen, Bart

Abstract

We generalize a single-country model of endogenous growth to the case of a multi-country world economy in which technology transfer and behavioral imitation are the possible means of interaction between countries. The model is evolutionary in the sense that the economies are disaggregated by behaviourally heterogeneous firms, market selection occurs and the innovation process is uncertain and stochastic. We demonstrate that this structure leads to a complex process of convergence and divergence over time that can be characterized as 1/f noise. Spectral analysis of measures of convergence for six core OECD countries in the period 1870-1989 reveals a similar pattern in the empirical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1995. "An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 209-227, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:5:y:1995:i:3:p:209-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Brouwer, Roy & Hofkes, Marjan, 2013. "Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-118.
    2. Bacila Nicolae, 2015. "Public Policies To R&D In Romania In The Context Of The Eu State Aid Policy," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 133-141, July.
    3. Garavaglia, Christian, 2010. "Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 258-275, November.
    4. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Luna, Ivette & Hiratuka, Celio & Haddad Netto, Elias Youssef, 2016. "Survival of the fittest or does size matter: What are the main drivers of Productivity in Brazil?," MPRA Paper 78208, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    6. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. André Lorentz, . "Sectoral Specialisation and Growth Rate Differences Among Integrated Economies," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    8. Vanessa Oltra & Murat Yildizoglu, 1999. "Non Expectations and Adaptive Behaviours: the Missing Trade-off in Models of Innovation," Working Papers of BETA 9915, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2018. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2018. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent - based model," Sciences Po publications 2018-02, Sciences Po.
    11. Oliveira, Francisco H.P. & Jayme, Frederico Jr. & Lemos, Mauro B., 2006. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, January.
    12. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2003. "Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Co-evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A survey," LEM Papers Series 2003/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Castellacci, Fulvio & Grodal, Stine & Mendonca, Sandro & Wibe, Mona, 2005. "Advances and challenges in innovation studies," MPRA Paper 27519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bacila Nicolae, 2012. "The Implications Of State Aid To R&D On Economic Development In The European Union," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-101, July.
    16. Witold Kwasnicki, 2002. "Evolutionary models’ comparative analysis. Methodology proposition based on selected neo-schumpeterian models of industrial dynamics," Microeconomics 0203002, EconWPA.
    17. Nicolae BACILA, 2012. "The relationship between government and business r&d expenditure in the European Union," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 134-141, May.
    18. Fulvio Castellacci, 2011. "Theoretical Models of Heterogeneity, Growth and Competitiveness: Insights from the Mainstream and Evolutionary Economics Paradigms," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Gianluca Grimalda & Marco Vivarelli, 2010. "Is inequality the price to pay for higher growth in middle-income countries?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-306, April.
    20. Xiaodan Yu & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Grazzi & Jiasu Lei, 2015. "Inside the Virtuous Cycle between Productivity, Profitability, Investment and Corporate Growth: An Anatomy of China Industrialization," LEM Papers Series 2015/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    21. Giovanni Dosi & Daniele Moschella & Emanuele Pugliese & Federico Tamagni, 2015. "Productivity, market selection, and corporate growth: comparative evidence across US and Europe," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 643-672, October.
    22. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2017. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2017/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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