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Deciphering the Myth of the Resource Curse: A Coherent Wavelet Analysis of Russia’s Economic and Social Dynamics

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  • Anastasia Kurilova

    (Togliatti State University, 14, Belorusskaya st, Samara, 445020, www.tltsu.ru)

Abstract

This paper reassesses the “resource curse” hypothesis in the Russian economy over 1990–2021 using coherent wavelet analysis. We study the time-varying and horizon-specific relationships among natural resource rents, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). Contrary to a universal curse narrative, we find no persistent negative association between resource rents and development. At long horizons, rents are positively associated with HDI, suggesting scope for resource wealth to finance social progress. Short-run comovements are episodic and regime-dependent: during periods of macroeconomic stability, rents align with higher income and human development, whereas crises and institutional uncertainty weaken or temporarily reverse these links. The results imply that policy and institutional quality—rather than resource abundance per se—determine development outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasia Kurilova, 2025. "Deciphering the Myth of the Resource Curse: A Coherent Wavelet Analysis of Russia’s Economic and Social Dynamics," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 21(2), pages 159-183, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:21:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-025-00112-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-025-00112-3
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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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