IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jagbes/v30y2025i4d10.1007_s13253-024-00624-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling First Arrival of Migratory Birds Using a Hierarchical Max-Infinitely Divisible Process

Author

Listed:
  • Dhanushi A. Wijeyakulasuriya

    (Microsoft Corporation)

  • Ephraim M. Hanks

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Benjamin A. Shaby

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

Humans have recorded the arrival dates of migratory birds for millennia, searching for trends and patterns. As the first arrival among individuals in a species is the realized tail of the probability distribution of arrivals, the appropriate statistical framework with which to analyze such events is extreme value theory. Here, for the first time, we apply formal extreme value techniques to the dynamics of bird migrations. We study the annual first arrivals of Magnolia Warblers using modern tools from the statistical field of extreme value analysis. Using observations from the eBird database, we model the spatial distribution of observed Magnolia Warbler arrivals as a max-infinitely divisible process, which allows us to spatially interpolate observed annual arrivals in a probabilistically coherent way and to project arrival dynamics into the future by conditioning on climatic variables. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhanushi A. Wijeyakulasuriya & Ephraim M. Hanks & Benjamin A. Shaby, 2025. "Modeling First Arrival of Migratory Birds Using a Hierarchical Max-Infinitely Divisible Process," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 30(4), pages 903-918, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:30:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s13253-024-00624-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13253-024-00624-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13253-024-00624-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13253-024-00624-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:30:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s13253-024-00624-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.