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Bayesian Analysis of $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb Dating

Author

Listed:
  • Marco A. Aquino-López

    (Queen’s University Belfast)

  • Maarten Blaauw

    (Queen’s University Belfast)

  • J. Andrés Christen

    (Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas (CIMAT))

  • Nicole K. Sanderson

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

In studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating is often used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the age of material at different depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of ‘unsupported’ $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of ‘supported’ $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb. Current $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and provide poor estimates of the uncertainties. Here, we develop a new model for $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb dating, where ages and values of supported and unsupported $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined age estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco A. Aquino-López & Maarten Blaauw & J. Andrés Christen & Nicole K. Sanderson, 2018. "Bayesian Analysis of $$^{210}$$ 210 Pb Dating," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(3), pages 317-333, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jagbes:v:23:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s13253-018-0328-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13253-018-0328-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samuel E. Munoz & Liviu Giosan & Matthew D. Therrell & Jonathan W. F. Remo & Zhixiong Shen & Richard M. Sullivan & Charlotte Wiman & Michelle O’Donnell & Jeffrey P. Donnelly, 2018. "Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering," Nature, Nature, vol. 556(7699), pages 95-98, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maarten Blaauw & J. Andrés Christen & Marco Antonio Aquino-López, 2020. "A Review of Statistics in Palaeoenvironmental Research," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 25(1), pages 17-31, March.

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