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Aggregated risk of a series of tunnels on Mumbai–Pune expressway

Author

Listed:
  • Jajati K. Jena

    (Cyient Limited
    Luleå University of Technology)

  • Ajit K. Verma

    (Western Norway University of Applied Sciences)

  • Uday Kumar

    (Luleå University of Technology)

  • Srividya Ajit

    (Luleå University of Technology)

Abstract

In the heavily industrialized western India, on the express way between Mumbai and Pune there is a series of five 03-lane one way tunnels. Risks in the tunnels on the hilly express way are sourced from the heavy goods vehicles often carrying dangerous goods. During the design stage, risk assessment is carried out using theoretical risk models such as OECD/PIARC DG-QRAM. However, during operational stage of a tunnel real time accident data are available to estimate the risk or fatality rate. In this paper a methodology has been developed to estimate aggregated risk of the series of 05 tunnels from the accident rate by Monte-Carlo simulation using simple random sampling technique. It has been found that major accident rate (or risk) is better represented by lognormal distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Jajati K. Jena & Ajit K. Verma & Uday Kumar & Srividya Ajit, 0. "Aggregated risk of a series of tunnels on Mumbai–Pune expressway," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 0, pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v::y::i::d:10.1007_s13198-020-00970-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-020-00970-3
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