IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijphth/v64y2019i6d10.1007_s00038-019-01234-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Selinger

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

  • Dobromir T. Dimitrov

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Philip A. Welkhoff

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

  • Anna Bershteyn

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

Abstract

Objectives Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine. Methods Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses. Results The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy. Conclusions A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Selinger & Dobromir T. Dimitrov & Philip A. Welkhoff & Anna Bershteyn, 2019. "The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(6), pages 957-964, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:64:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00038-019-01234-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blythe Adamson & Dobromir Dimitrov & Beth Devine & Ruanne Barnabas, 2017. "The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Vaccines: A Systematic Review," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Thomas M Harmon & Kevin A Fisher & Margaret G McGlynn & John Stover & Mitchell J Warren & Yu Teng & Arne Näveke, 2016. "Exploring the Potential Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of AIDS Vaccine within a Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Response in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffy G. Mattathil & Asisa Volz & Olusegun O. Onabajo & Sean Maynard & Sandra L. Bixler & Xiaoying X. Shen & Diego Vargas-Inchaustegui & Marjorie Robert-Guroff & Celia Lebranche & Georgia Tomaras & Da, 2023. "Direct intranodal tonsil vaccination with modified vaccinia Ankara vaccine protects macaques from highly pathogenic SIVmac251," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:64:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00038-019-01234-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.