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An application of hidden Markov models to asset allocation problems (*)

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Elliott

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2G1)

  • John van der Hoek

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005)

Abstract

Filtering and parameter estimation techniques from hidden Markov Models are applied to a discrete time asset allocation problem. For the commonly used mean-variance utility explicit optimal strategies are obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Elliott & John van der Hoek, 1997. "An application of hidden Markov models to asset allocation problems (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 229-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:1:y:1997:i:3:p:229-238
    Note: received: December 1995 / final version received: August 1996
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Dong-Mei & Lu, Jiejun & Ching, Wai-Ki & Siu, Tak-Kuen, 2017. "Discrete-time optimal asset allocation under Higher-Order Hidden Markov Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 223-232.
    2. Nikita Ratanov, 2008. "Option Pricing Model Based on a Markov-modulated Diffusion with Jumps," Papers 0812.0761, arXiv.org.
    3. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    4. Leunglung Chan & Song-Ping Zhu, 2014. "An exact and explicit formula for pricing Asian options with regime switching," Papers 1407.5091, arXiv.org.
    5. Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alex, 2010. "On mean-variance portfolio selection under a hidden Markovian regime-switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 678-686, May.
    6. Robert Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Siu, 2006. "Risk measures for derivatives with Markov-modulated pure jump processes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(2), pages 129-149, June.
    7. Kexin Chen & Hoi Ying Wong, 2022. "Duality in optimal consumption--investment problems with alternative data," Papers 2210.08422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Thuener Silva & Davi Valladão & Tito Homem-de-Mello, 2021. "A data-driven approach for a class of stochastic dynamic optimization problems," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 80(3), pages 687-729, December.
    9. Eckhard Platen & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 79-105, March.
    10. Robert Elliott & Tak Siu, 2010. "On risk minimizing portfolios under a Markovian regime-switching Black-Scholes economy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 271-291, April.
    11. Hu, Fengxia & Wang, Rongming, 2017. "Optimal investment–consumption strategy with liability and regime switching model under Value-at-Risk constraint," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 103-118.
    12. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3767-3781.
    13. Zhengjun Jiang & Martijn Pistorius, 2008. "Optimal dividend distribution under Markov-regime switching," Papers 0812.4978, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    14. Robert J. Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2014. "Strategic Asset Allocation Under a Fractional Hidden Markov Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 609-626, September.
    15. Hiroshi Ishijima & Masaki Uchida, 2011. "The Regime Switching Portfolios," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189, May.
    16. Vladimir Dombrovskii & Tatyana Obyedko, 2014. "Dynamic Investment Portfolio Optimization under Constraints in the Financial Market with Regime Switching using Model Predictive Control," Papers 1410.1136, arXiv.org.
    17. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    18. Zhengjun Jiang & Martijn Pistorius, 2012. "Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 449-476, July.
    19. Leunglung Chan & Song-Ping Zhu, 2021. "An Analytic Approach for Pricing American Options with Regime Switching," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, April.
    20. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2008. "A game theoretic approach to option valuation under Markovian regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1146-1158, June.
    21. Reetam Majumder & Qing Ji & Nagaraj K. Neerchal, 2023. "Optimal Stock Portfolio Selection with a Multivariate Hidden Markov Model," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 177-198, May.
    22. Trichilli, Yousra & Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène & Masmoudi, Afif, 2020. "Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    23. Christina Erlwein‐Sayer & Stefanie Grimm & Peter Ruckdeschel & Jörn Sass & Tilman Sayer, 2020. "Filter‐based portfolio strategies in an HMM setting with varying correlation parametrizations," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 307-334, May.
    24. Robert J. Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Kuen Siu, 2005. "Option pricing and Esscher transform under regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 423-432, October.
    25. Robert Elliott & Tak Siu & Leunglung Chan, 2008. "A PDE approach for risk measures for derivatives with regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 55-74, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hidden Markov models; asset allocation; portfolio selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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